Ashaway, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS61 KBOX 091820
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
220 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another chilly night is in store tonight with weak high pressure
in place. Increasing clouds Thursday, but with generally dry
weather. Another prolonged cloudy period with onshore breezes
and several rounds of precipitation is expected for late this
week into this weekend. This will be highlighted by a soaking,
wind-driven rain for Friday night and Saturday. Additional rains
possible for Sunday. We dry out and warm back up to above normal
temperatures early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Another rather chilly night tonight, although cloud cover
  increases toward daybreak.

High pressure continues to move overhead. Expecting winds to
eventually become very light, if not calm, for a time. Mainly
clear skies further sets the stage for very good radiational
cooling. Favored the lowest temperature guidance over land,
meaning below normal low temperatures across southern New
England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Increasing cloudiness to overcast Thursday, with cooler
  onshore breezes. Outside chance at light showers late-day
  across western New England, but greater risk Thursday
  evening.

High pressure moves farther offshore Thursday and Thursday
night. Expecting much of the day to be dry across southern New
England. There is a low risk for some showers west of the
Connecticut River late in the day, but the greater risk will be
later in the evening and overnight as a warm front tries to
approach. Not looking like a washout, with most areas most
likely to see less than one tenth inch. Even a low risk for some
light snow across the higher terrain, but insignificant
accumulations at most.

Beyond the precipitation chances, looking at increasing clouds
late Thursday with cloudy skies expected for Thursday night.
Still a bit of an onshore flow component to the wind, so
thinking there will not be much of a warmup just yet. Near to
slightly below normal temperatures during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dreary, cloudy and unsettled late week into the weekend, with
  onshore breezes and several periods of rain. Cooler than
  normal highs and near/above normal lows.

* Expecting a widespread soaking moderate rain event Saturday.
  Another possible period of rain Sunday for eastern coast.

* Brief warmup early next week before turning unsettled again by
  midweek.

Details:

Friday Night through the Weekend:

12z guidance remains consistent in its continued advertisement
of a slow-evolving, cloudy and dreary late week into the
weekend, with several periods of precipitation and onshore flow.
This is in response to a deep upper level trough which digs into
the southern/central Appalachians for late in the workweek and
closes off into an upper level low as we move into the weekend.
A couple low pressures coming up on the eastern periphery of the
upper trough over the Atlantic Seaboard will serve as foci for
rain chances (some higher elevation wet snows possible early in
this period). In addition, antecedent high pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes remains more or less in place into at least
the early part of the weekend, and the combo will help drive a
rather prolonged period of onshore E/NE flow, looking most
enhanced Fri night into Sat. Overall, in a period with lots of
cloud cover and onshore breezes, expect a narrower diurnal
temperature range in this period, with cooler than normal highs
and near to slightly above normal lows.

Precipitation coverage and intensity increase as we head into
Fri night and Sat as low pressure slowly up the coast. This
period of steadier light to at times moderate rains also looks
to be accompanied by enhanced ENE flow, with potential for
gale- force gusts over some of our waters. Reasonably high
enough confidence in a period of wind-driven rains, although it
doesn`t look as though this combo would equate to adverse
impact, just an annoyance as we move into another unsettled
weekend. Supporting this thinking is the NBM mean which has a
widespread .75 - 1.25 inches of QPF across the CWA for Sat.
Additionally, PWATS, while above climatological averages for
this time of year, are advertised by ensembles to be only around
1.3-1.5 STD above climatology for the duration of the event.
Still, briefly moderate to heavy rainfall could lead to areas of
ponding on roadways through Sat afternoon.

Another possible break in precip Sat night before another
potential round of rains near the eastern coast as low pressure
either passes close to Southern New England or far enough
offshore. The exact track of this low for late Sat night/Sun is
still uncertain with varied placement in the NWP/ensembles. So,
in a nutshell, Fri night thru most of Sat looks to be the
soggiest.

It`s also a rather long-duration period of onshore flow
affecting our eastern coastlines. Did look at coastal flooding
potential since we`ll have this prolonged E/NE flow over several
high tidal cycles, but astro tides are still on the low side
(slotting in around 9.35- 9.45 ft MLLW at BOS Harbor) and that
should limit any potential.

Early Next Week:

The slow-moving upper trough finally moves offshore by early
next week, and we could stand to warm up at least briefly ahead
of another rather potent frontal system per ECMWF/GFS solutions.
After a longer period of cooler than normal highs, we could
stand to warm up briefly into early next week. Ensembles
advertise another trough deepening over the eastern US later
Tuesday into the midweek. This could lead to yet another stretch
of cooler and unsettled weather around that time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight: High confidence.

Continued VFR. Winds continue to ease into tonight and become
light W/NW by daybreak, along with an increase in VFR midlevel
clouds.

Thursday: High confidence.

VFR for most of the day, though clouds increase from W to E and
could see some MVFR bases work into BAF/BDL late in the day.
Light winds early, but will become E/SE and increase to 5-10 kt.

Thursday Night:

Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR developing across the higher terrain
in light RA/SN. Areas IFR possible towards the Berkshires late.

BOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze more likely to
develop by mid morning.

BDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA, chance FZRA.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance SHSN.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Winds and seas continue to subside as high pressure moves over
the waters tonight, then farther offshore Thursday. A warm front
will try to approach the waters late Thursday night, but most
likely will stay west of the waters. Will continue to let Small
Craft Advisories expire through this afternoon.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers likely.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/FT
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...Belk/FT